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For six years, the Internet Nexus served as my technology blog, but I've since started blogging at the SuperSite Blog instead. If you're looking for the blog, please head there. --Paul

Wednesday, December 08, 2004

Apple Macintosh Installed Base Set To Grow Again

Forbes:

Goldman also said that for the first time in three years, the Macintosh installed based should start to grow again with unit shipments rising 10% in calendar 2004. "In calendar 2005, stronger sales of Apple's recently refreshed iMac and Power Mac desktops (off of easy comparisons), pull from the popularity of iPod, and the continued shift to notebooks should fuel unit growth of 10% compared to our industry growth estimate of 9%," the firm said.

While this news will no doubt be lapped up by the Apple faithful--I've resisted writing anything about any of the other baloney "iPod effect" stories that suggest the iPod's success will help the struggling Macintosh--this one is more deceptive than most. "Unit sales", or "installed base" don't mean anything if the growth of the PC industry exceeds that of the Mac (and it does). For example, if just one ex-PC user switches to the Mac this year, than the Mac's "installed base" increases, rendering this headline moot.

As for unit sales, any growth is better than atrition, of course, but that success is also rendered moot if that growth falls well below the growth of the overall industry. And lets see, Gartner says that the PC industry will grow 13.6 percent in 2004, while Merrill Lynch puts growth closer to 12 percent. Either way, that means that Apple's market share will fall once again. And each year that happens, the Mac market becomes less enticing to developers, consumers, and businesses, sorry.

And, sigh, I'll mention once again just for kicks that I'd love to see Apple really grow its Mac market, though no one seems to believe it. I just don't see that happening, despite the many iPod Love stories out there. But only Apple and the year-end market share figures will prove that one way or another.

[ Posted at 8:49 AM | Permalink ]