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For six years, the Internet Nexus served as my technology blog, but I've since started blogging at the SuperSite Blog instead. If you're looking for the blog, please head there. --Paul

Thursday, September 22, 2005

Windows Vista: The Final Countdown Begins

Rob Enderle reports, correctly of course, that Windows Vista is going to cause Apple fits in the OS market:
Users will like the changes they see [in Windows Vista and Office 12] that the developers are already excited about. Most users don't use Linux and the market moved from Apple PCs years ago. Better reliability, security, and a more appliance-like experience are all good things and we can only imagine what might have been had Microsoft not delayed this product two years. As always, and particularly in this case, the best experience for users of this new OS will be had on new hardware which is becoming both more attractive and less expensive year after year.

This suggests that 2006, at least after August, will be great time for buyers and sellers of PC hardware and that has to be a good thing for everyone -- except Apple.
For some reason, this opinion is considered controversial in certain circles, because, sadly, those circles like controversy and have to invent hatred when it's slow and there's nothing to write about. Sorry, there's nothing controversial here. Enderle says, accurately, that Windows Vista is good stuff. He notes that it's release, along with the release of Office 12, will begin a new round of upgrades in the PC market. Correct again. And he concludes that this will benefit everyone but Apple. Duh.

He never says Apple is going to "die". Not once. He does say this, however:
Apple will have to improve its game sharply to compete. However, given the strength at the back end, strength that Apple has never had, the exposure now goes well beyond Apple's available resources. This means Apple will have to partner to avoid what may be the most damaging competitive threat the company has ever faced. While possible, Apple's one prevailing weakness has been their inability to partner and unless that changes we should be able to call the outcome of this competition relatively easily -- and it isn't positive for Apple.
Sounds accurate to me.

So given a more realistic look at this article, what's the big deal, really? Did you actually believe that Apple was magically going to grab 10 percent of the PC market? If you did, you didn't read my earlier dissertation on why that can't happen (What will it take for the Mac to grab 5 percent of the PC industry?), no matter how well that Mac does (within reason). It's all in the math, folks.

I wonder what rabid Mac sites would be like without thinking the world is conspired against them? Heads up time, guys. The world, frankly, doesn't really think about you all that much. Sorry.
[ Posted at 5:36 PM | Permalink ]


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