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For six years, the Internet Nexus served as my technology blog, but I've since started blogging at the SuperSite Blog instead. If you're looking for the blog, please head there. --Paul

Sunday, March 04, 2007

Woo! Another "Year of Desktop Linux" Story

Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols asks, Is a Linux Desktop Avalanche Coming? Allow me to answer this question, as I do every year.


But I'm amused people are still arguing this could happen. It's pretty obvious at this point that widespread dissatisfaction with Windows is a myth. That said, a certain segment of the population--let's call them the better educated, technically-savvy, hip crowd--will undergo whatever effort is required to "think different" and use a Mac. Currently, that's about 2.5 percent of computer users worldwide, or about 4 percent in the US. There's another segment, much smaller, who prefer Linux. These guys are the computing equivalent of organic food or hybrid car fans. However, unlike those markets, Linux desktop usage is simply not growing. It's just not happening. I'm curious that that's the case. But it just is.


Articles like this pander to the open source community, and it's unclear what the point is. It's full of hopeful yet unscientific language like "momentum," "getting better and better," and "about to change." But come on, every "year of desktop Linux" story from the past ten years has used the same language. There's nothing going on now to suggest that anyone is actually making this switch. There's just the hope, the wish, the continuing examples of how Linux is just "getting better and better." Of course it is. So is Windows and Mac OS X. And maybe that's the problem, if you're selling something that relies more on faith than reality.

Thanks Bob.


[ Posted at 1:18 PM | Permalink ]


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